Earthquakes can literally be ground shattering for society. Here results of the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake.
Few could deny that predicting earthquakes would be a valuable tool for the future. Authorities would be able to reduce the impacts and many lives and billions of dollars could be saved.
“At the moment, we know the parts of the world where earthquakes happen and how often they happen on average in these areas,” said Dr Brian Baptie, of the British Geological Survey (BGS).
“Many regions, such as Indonesia and Japan, experience large earthquakes on a regular basis, so vague predictions of earthquakes in these places requires no great skill.”
Nevertheless, ever since the theory of tectonic plates was established, it still appears that earthquakes and volcanoes are “quasi-random” events that cannot be predicted before it is too late. But not everyone has been so accepting of these limitations.
In 1979, Italian amateur seismologist Rafaelle Bendandi supposedly predicted that Rome, with no history of tectonic activity, would be crushed by a huge earthquake on 11 May, 2011. He died shortly after making the prediction and was not able to see that it didn’t happen, although many in the Italian capital fled in an attempt to be better safe than sorry.
Yet around 800 miles away, in the Spanish town of Lorca, a magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck the region, and 11 people are reported to have died following the event. Bendandi’s theories were based on the gravitational forces of planetary alignment on the earth’s crust, which would move tectonic plates in certain areas.
“Many of the methods that have been applied to earthquake prediction have been discredited,” continued Dr Baptie. “Predictions such as the recent Rome one have little basis and merely cause public alarm. Last week’s earthquakes in Lorca, Spain were in no way predicted.”
Nevertheless, the idea of earthquake prediction has led to a substantial amount of research and aroused interest over the past few years following devastating events with catastrophic consequences.
A variety of measurements are used to predict earthquakes. These range from the level of the water table to the seemingly random migration of toads three days before an earthquake struck L’Aquila, Italy in 2009.
And perhaps due to the varied nature of earthquake-linked environmental events, the most effective systems can only give a few moments notice with substantial confidence. At best this offers the opportunity to get to a slightly safer part of the building that you’re in, or away from falling hazards. But, at such short notice, this cannot prevent large-scale damage or the potential for loss of life.
“Despite huge efforts and great advances in our understanding of earthquakes, there are no good examples of an earthquake being successfully predicted in terms of where, when and how big,” Dr Baptie concluded.
It seems then, that even though we have developed a better understanding of the science behind earthquakes, there is still no way, in which accurate predictions of when they will strike can be made.
Image courtesy of Tubbi and Mike8411251995 via Wikimedia Commons.
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