Energy security in the wake of natural disasters and political unrests

Debora - The turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East is spreading. After Tunisia and Egypt, the biggest tension now seems to be happening in Libya, where some groups of the population are protesting since late February, asking president Muammar Gaddafi to resign.

Libya is not only one of the biggest oil producers in Africa, but it also has the largest oil reserves in the continent, exporting 1.3 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency said recently the production has almost ground to a halt, and exports are likely to be off for months. This is leading to an economic slowdown in the North African oil industry and consequently a strong rise in the oil prices. It’s a very critical situation that will certainly have an impact in our routines and lifestyles.

Mike – It will, but that won’t be particularly noticeable in the UK. In fact, rail ticket prices rose by around 6 per cent on average and 13 per cent in some areas at the start of January. Actually, only around 4p in every pound we spend on rail tickets goes towards fuel costs. But it wasn’t that fuel prices were rising that the tickets became more expensive – it’s because of inflation.

For those who rely on personal transportation, though, it’s a slightly different picture. Diesel is predicted to reach £1.50 a litre in the short-term future, based for example on the current Middle East socio-political problems. This will be the difference between breaking even and bankruptcy for a number of businesses, especially those heavily reliant on delivery of goods or taxi services.

Debora – But oil doesn’t only transport people. As long as transportation relies on oil, food transportation will rely on oil too. Food prices are on the rise since January, before the unrests had started. A few weeks ago, the UN has reported a rise of 2.2 per cent for the food price index, which measures prices for a basket of food commodities. This index is now at its highest level since 1990. Moreover, as we know emerging nations such as Brazil and India are increasing the demand for food. This will have an impact on the poorer countries.

Mike – The truth is, in times of crisis nations turn inwards to solve their own problems before helping others. Although fuel costs will increase, we’ll probably still be able to afford to eat here in the UK. With regards to reducing our dependence on oil, if we can find a way to harness green technology for our everyday household needs, that would be a positive alternative. Solar power and wind turbines aren’t feasible to be fitted to the top of every roof, but where possible they could be useful. The country has started to financially support individuals who want to use solar energy.

As much as prices rise based on energy unavailability, they’re closely linked to fuel security. Russia pumps much of the gas we use in Britain, China produces a lot of the coal we rely on and the Middle East provides most of the oil. Renewable energy is abundant, but managing it is very complex.

Debora – We have been very much focused on the North African scenario, but suddenly a tsunami hit Japan, causing further environmental issues. First, the Cosmo oil refinery, in a city near Tokyo burned out of control. And now we face a potentially big nuclear disaster. And although nuclear policy varies from country to country, a major meltdown would have a global impact.

Mike – We cannot survive without nuclear power: the last fifty years have seen the emergence of nuclear fuel and massive increases of energy produced from it over the past few years. It’s off-set our reliance on fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil for electricity.

Nuclear power produces no carbon dioxide in energy production. And it creates substantially more electricity than the equivalently-sized gas or coal power station. Nuclear energy is safe; the Fukushima plant survived an earthquake, aftershocks and a tsunami before things became dangerous.

Debora – In practice, though, many countries do not believe those claims of nuclear energy safety. A large movement against nuclear energy is increasing in different countries. More than 100.000 people took part in protests in Germany, and the government of Angela Merkel has decided to shut down at least seven nuclear plants. In the UK, too, environmental campaigners are calling for a rethink of plans for new nuclear power stations. There is a very big concern around the safety of nuclear energy, but while everyone is concerned, the world needs energy to keep working.

Mike - Investments can be made into renewable energy technologies. We cannot rely only on nuclear power for the future: it’s too risky to rely on any one power source, especially if there are safety issues. Solar, wind and tidal turbines can be harnessed in most countries and supply a constant source of energy creation. Spending now on alternative fuels would help us for the future.