As this year’s United Nations Conference on Climate Change approaches, there are lots of questions on the minds of onlookers. The primary one, most likely, is whether the November 28th summit, hosted in Durban, South Africa, will be considered a success for developing countries.
The world will be watching closely to see whether the more developed countries will fulfil their promises to assist developing nations, who will be some of the most vulnerable to climate change’s growing effects.
Many of the most vulnerable countries are in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, as well as small island nations. Climate change can be compounded by other aspects of development and by the natural variability that exists in some climates, for instance, in Africa. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), “Many areas in Africa are recognized as having climates that are among the most variable in the world on seasonal and decadal time scales.”
Growing populations
Developing countries emit less carbon dioxide per person than developed nations. But by their sheer population, developing nations are major contributors to greenhouse emissions: a 2008 study found they were responsible for 47 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. Much of this is a result of outdated industrial and transportation technology.
Population growth has increased use of these technologies and therefore contributed to rising carbon emissions in these countries. But it also means that these places have experienced more of the socio-economic consequences to date.
South Asia, home to one-fifth of the global population, faces environmental degradation, risk of natural disasters and poverty, all compounded by climate change.
“South Asia (is) one of the most ecologically vulnerable regions of the world,” said Pema Dorji, director of the South East Asia Association for Regional Cooperation, at a September meeting of South Asian environment ministers.
A range of threats
Over the last decade, developing countries have witnessed various economic woes that have been attributed to climate change. They have experienced an unusually high incidence of natural disasters such as flooding, declining agricultural production, and a decrease in food security and water availability. These all, in turn, have an impact on human health.
The Department for International Development (DFID) has estimated that climate change will hit Africa hardest “through tropical storms, droughts, landslides and sea level rises with far reaching impacts on livelihoods and health”.
A changing agricultural landscape
Global effects on agriculture are not evenly distributed, either. Overall, crops produced in developed countries, such as wheat, rice and soya beans, are responding positively to rising carbon emissions. In contrast, crops produced in the developing world such as maize, sorghum and sugar canes that are often the mainstay of developing economies, have all declined in productivity.
According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), agriculture represents up to 60% of the total economy in some African countries, including Guinea-Bissau, the Central African Republic and Ethiopia.
Therefore, economic impacts will be substantial. According to DFID, “For a 1 metre sea level rise: in Kenya, losses to mango, cashew nut and coconut producers will reach $472.8m. In Tanzania, the amount of maize that can be harvested will fall by a third. In Nigeria, three quarters of the total agricultural area will be at threat”.
Drying up
Water scarcity is an increasing problem in the developing world and is already one of the biggest concerns for governments. A good example is Lake Chad, which was historically a large, shallow lake in Africa. It is of great economic importance, providing water for more than 20 million people in the countries surrounding it.
According to satellite images, Lake Chad is now a tenth of its former size. It is rapidly becoming farmland now, as a result of many pressures on the region, including population rise and climate change.
Challenges ahead
It is clear that climate change poses a number of challenges for both developing and developed countries. It is not possible to say for certain exactly what will happen, but it is clear that as things change, the world’s population will need to find ways to cope.
If developed countries use the upcoming summit wisely, they have an opportunity to assist developing nations in coping too.