Could the global recession slow down global warming?

By Julius Goldthorpe

Recession is a word that brings a shiver to the spine of many people. But need it be all doom and gloom? If you can look beyond economic crisis, the insolvencies and redundancies, there may be a silver lining. Since the global recession began, carbon emissions have fallen for the first time in years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). But, the Global Carbon Project believes carbon emissions are continuing to rise, despite the recession. So, has the recession provided respite from climate change or is it all fiction?

When the UK joined other countries in recession, few thought about the impact it would have on the environment. But the European Environment Agency believes the recession has “reduced industrial output, energy consumption and transport.” Experts claim this has lead to the biggest decline in carbon emissions for decades.

The recession could have reduced carbon emissions

As with most opinions, there is always an opposite argument. The pessimists, or realists, depending how you view them, believe that the recession is not benefiting the climate, yet worsening preparation for the future. A recent report from the IEA claims investment in renewable energy projects has “fallen by 20 per cent in the last year,” and if nothing is done to change this there will “be far-reaching and potentially serious effects on climate change.” This is a thought concurred by Colette Lewiner, of the European Energy Market Observatory, who says the recession has “reduced gas and electricity consumption globally reducing many utility companies to cancel investments in renewable energy projects.” She believes “addressing this crisis is essential.”

Economic growth in developing countries is increasing carbon emissions

But even if we have reduced carbon emissions during the recession, according to some experts, it will all be in vain because not all countries are in the same financial turmoil. Abyd Karmali, carbon emissions director for Merrill Lynch, says “economies in places like China and India are still growing despite the global recession.” This compensates for the reduction in our carbon emissions with an increase in their own. In Europe and the USA the recession may have had a knock on effect reducing carbon emissions, but with China and India still developing and emitting more and more carbon every year, it seems linking the recession to reduced carbon emissions is a little premature.

Nineties recessions

In the nineties the Thatcher Government faced a similar problem. The British economy was in recession and they had the pressing environmental matter of acid rain. As with the current recession, there was forced closure of heavy industry. This consequently reduced sulphur dioxide levels and, in turn, rainfall that was less acidic. The Government were praised for their role in this, although technically they had no choice but to close industry. But as recalled by Professor Rick Battarbee, of University College London, “once the recession was over the emissions were up again.” So, the recession briefly provided respite for the environment in the past. But what was learnt from this? Professor Battarbee believes that this time, “when people expand their economies, they must do so without burning fossil fuels.”

It’s important that the recession is not considered an excuse for not acting, like many fear, but as an opportunity for continuing reduction in carbon emissions.

A tight coupling between the economy and the environment

The Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment (CABE) believe they have an answer that would kill two birds with one stone, so to say. By making “urban areas greener” we could improve both the economy and the environment. For example, “investing in green roofs would reduce the risk of flooding in cities by absorbing heavy rain. It would also cool the summer air, improve air quality and support biodiversity,” according to Richard Simmon, chief executive of the CABE. But it would also create “new and sustainable jobs” in the private sector, aiding the economy.

The IEA say to stop global warming reaching the two degree Celsius threshold, which many claim would be catastrophic, millions needs to be invested into renewable energy and greener living. Whether the recession will hamper this funding is yet to be seen, but claims of the recession being beneficial for the environment are extremely premature. According to Professor Battarbee, the world is already “committed to a 0.6 degree Celsius warming effect, even if carbon output fell to 0 per cent today.” So its not just about cutting carbon emissions, it’s about doing it before it’s too late. The debate is still open as to whether the recession is a help or a hindrance to the climate. But should we have let it get to this? Needing a recession to make us stand up and take notice? Yvo de Boer, the UN’s head of the climate secretariat, sums it up well. “It would be a pretty depressing way to make progress – to find that recession was helping the world kick an addiction to burning fossil fuels.”